Publications

Expert Comments available here.

Date	Title
Feb 10 2008	Irán 2008: La aceptación de candidaturas Luciano Zaccara Iran El 14 de marzo los iraníes votarán su 8º legislatura. Estas elecciones son fundamentales para las aspiraciones de reelección del presidente Ahmadineyad y para los reformistas, que pretenden reforzar su recuperación ante su electorado de cara a las presidenciales de 2009.
May 21 2009	Irán 2009: El inicio de la campaña presidencial Luciano Zaccara Iran El 20 de mayo el Ministerio del Interior dio a conocer la lista definitiva de candidatos presidenciales para el próximo 12 de junio. Solo los cuatro precandidatos previstos por todas las quinielas han superado el estricto filtro del Consejo de Guardianes. No ha habido sorpresas en este sentido, y los contendientes serán el actual presidente Mahmud Ahmadineyad; el ex Primer Ministro Mir Hussein Musavi; el ex presidente del Parlamento Mehdi Karrubi y el ex jefe de la Guardia Revolucionara Mohsen Rezai.
Jun 01 2009	Irán 2009: Encuestas, participación y claves electorales Luciano Zaccara Iran Ningún presidente iraní ha perdido al competir por su reelección. Jamenei, Rafsanyani y Jatami accedieron a sus respectivos segundos mandatos en 1985, 1993 y 2001 respectivamente. Sin embargo, cabe remarcar que ningún otro presidente iraní había sido tan desafiado por otros candidatos con serias opciones de plantar batalla electoral. Si tenemos en cuenta la división existente también dentro de la élite iraní, no se podría vaticinar una fácil victoria de Ahmadineyad en una sola ronda el 12 de junio.
Jul 01 2009	Local and Assembly of Experts elections, 15 December 2006 Luciano Zaccara Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became President of Iran in May 2005 with the support of the fundamentalists led by the Ayatollah Taqi Mesbah and the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s conservatives, defeating Hashemi Rafsanjani’s pragmatists and the reformists of Mohamed Khatami.
Jul 12 2009	Presidential Elections 12 June 2009 Luciano Zaccara Iran Iran’s tenth presidential election coincided with the 30th anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic Republic and with an incipient crisis in the political leadership resulting from clashes between the reformist and conservative sectors, but also between factions among the conservatives, including both President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as well as Hashemi Rafsanjani -the Chairman of the Expediency Discernment Council and the Assembly of Experts-, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Ali Larijani, and other important figures in the Iranian political establi
Jun 22 2013	Post-electoral Analysis: Iran Presidential Elections 14th June 2013 Luciano Zaccara Iran Successive presidential elections with surprising and unexpected results (1997, 2005 and 2009) have now made clear to academics, journalists and governments that it is impossible to predict Iranian election results. None of the analysis prior to the June 14 elections took into account the possibility that the hojatoleslam and doctor1, Hassan Feridon - better known as Rouhani - would win outright in the first round.
Jan 28 2016	IRAN Elections to the Islamic Consultative Assembly, February 2016 Luciano Zaccara Iran On February 26^th the first round of the 10^th legislative elections to designate the 290 members of the Islamic Consultative Assembly (Majles-e Shura-ye Eslami), which is convened every four years, will take place.
Mar 03 2016	Who has won the Iranian elections? Luciano Zaccara Iran Although 70 out of 290 seats of the Islamic Consultative Assembly are yet to decide, and the definitive data of the first round have still not been ratified by the Guardian Council, some conclusions may be reached about who has won and lost in these double elections, which also included the election of the 88 cleric members of the Assembly of Experts, a collegiate body which has the important attribution of choosing, confirming annually, and even relieve the Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Mar 15 2020	IRAN: Post electoral analysis Legislative 2020 Luciano Zaccara Iran On February 21^st, 2020, 57,918,000 Iranians were called to vote in the first round of the 11^th Legislative Elections since the establishment of the Iranian Islamic Republic in 1979. Among the voters, 2,931,000 were first-time voters, as they were over the minimum age of 18 established by the electoral law. The posts in dispute were the 290 seats of the Islamic Consultative Assembly (Majlis), which represents the 31 Iranian provinces, divided among 208 electoral districts (174 single and 34 multiple).
Jun 25 2021	IRAN Presidential elections 2021: What the numbers say Luciano Zaccara Iran With the final results already published, and after all the controversies about the disqualification of ma