Political organizations are intensifying their activities in Kyrgyzstan notably. It is obvious that this activity is associated with preparation for the next parliamentary elections , which will be held in autumn of 2015.
The Parliament of the fifth convocation is actually at the finish line and continuing very funny squabbles, bloopers, initiatives only confirm that leaders of the parties, intending to join the fight for parliamentary mandates of the sixth convocation, will need to analyze composition of candidates seriously. Even, perhaps, demanding certificate of mental health and passing of IQ test.
The election campaign, in fact, has already started. But it hasn't yet entered its active phase. Therefore those are active, who intend to get into a new composition of the Parliament. And old-timers prefer not to waster their breath ahead of time.
Undoubtedly, the favorite in the elections of 2015 will be the ruling - the Social Democratic Party (SDPK). It has administrative resources, as well as bureaucratic servility in hope of future dividends and electoral habit of the most active part of the voters - pensioners.
Another veteran - "Ata Meken" socialist party, despite a number of scandals (and quite high-profile ones), remains afloat. Of course, thanks to its permanent leader Omurbek Tekebayev. A lot of people tried to write him off, and opponents even buried the party and the leader himself. But the main socialist of the country not only survived, but he is in a perfect political form. And his legislative work is teeming.
Omurbek Tekebayev manages to dig a grave for a single strategic object of the country - Kumtor, due to contributions from the government which creates very interesting figures of GDP and overall "sustainable economic growth". He manages to provide a guarantee of future victory, making and amending the electoral law.
However, there were experts, who do not share optimism of "Ata Meken" socialists and recommend not cherishing illusions. According to the teacher of the Faculty of International Relations KNU Anvar Suiyumbetov, the chances of stunning victory of the party are extremely small. "Marauding scandal brought a cloud on Omurbek Tekebayev's happiness. Add to this the latent confrontation between him and the presidential staff as well as insignificant authority of "Ata Meken" in the south. Throughout his political activities Tekebayev showed himself as a politician, too prone to intrigue and backstage wars. I think that such a partner is no longer useful for "top leadership"," Anvar Suiyumbetov said.
In our opinion, the expert did not consider one, but important fact. Despite the inconsistency of the leader of "Ata Meken" faction, he will not be left out for only one reason. Too much connects him with politicians, with whom they came to power in April 2010. In addition to the heroic pages, a lot of dark spots still remain. And former members of the former interim government are bound by a single chain, more than shackles of love or hate...
Political analysts concur that another old party - "Ar-Namys" - is unlikely to pass in the future composition of the Parliament. According to the expert Zamirbek Biymurzaev, party waiting for oblivion, primarily "because of weak authority of the leader Felix Kulov". Since, it is hard to disagree. Former authority, once adorable by all, lost on their own stupidity, or even by other reasons.
But, anyway, "Ar-Namys" faction is almost going to break records of "Ata Meken" by a number of scandals and obscure stories. Let us remember the last couple, when Felix Kulov held the so-called competition among candidates for the post of the Head of the State Registration Service (SRS) and was disconcerted, making a fool of not only the winner, but also of himself. Or a high-profile scandal with the arrest of his close friend Dmitry Tsoi, the owner of LLC "Intel Lynx" and other companies for the sake of stable and decent incomes, which Kulov himself lobbied not only appointment to the SRS, but also tenders and investment competitions. However, tenders as well as investment competitions passed by the "iron shield of the law".
"Ata Meken" party is unlikely has a chance for fireworks and landslide victory. Within the organization there are debates, quarrels, and half the leaders are on the run or in prison. Perhaps, the electorate is not very upset if they won't see in the future composition of the parliament, for example, a former official prosecutor of Akayev and Bakiyev times - Kurmantai Abdiev. The man, who believes, that "it is non of Kyrgyzstanis business to find out what salary have our MPs". Or very emotional lady - Zhyldyzkan Dzholdoshova...
There quire enough newcomers in party construction. Despite the fact that the Ministry of Justice registered 188 political organizations, citizens of Kyrgyzstan understand: this is not a limit.
Among the new entities there can be highlighted two parties - "Onuguu-Progress" and "Bir Bol". Both actively started, attracting all the well-known people and youth to their ranks.
The first, however, so far focused on the electoral preferences of the south. "Onuguu -Progress" prefers to work on a small country of the founder-father - Bakyt Torobayev.
Alas, the party is less aware of creative projects than its intrigues and scandals. Passions run high in Jalal-Abad, and representatives of the SDPK, "Onuguu" and "Ata- Zhurt" are wresting a garland of victory from hands of each other. The epicenter of conflicts is located in the City Council. Then divide the positions of regional importance here. Because of ongoing debates in Jalal-Abad city council a majority coalition hasn't formed yet. Earlier, the former deputy of the City Council Bekmamat Mamasadykov told reporters of 24.kg news agency, what is happening now in the regional center.
"Back in April, there were proposals to form a coalition of Social Democrats and "Onuguu - Progress", provided an opportunity to give the Mayor of the Social Democratic Party Mukhtar Arapbaev continue to work, and to elect the Speaker of the City Council and two Vice Mayors from "Onuguu -Progress". But then personal relationships between party leaders and, so-called, curators became a stumbling block. It is about Bakyt Torobayev ("Onuguu-Progress"), Kamchybek Tashiev ("Ata-Zhurt") and Toktogul Tumanov (SDPK). Leaders, or, so-called, curators of the parties can not find common ground and reach agreement. And this affects the whole city and its inhabitants. It turns out that paramount importance is given to curators' personal interests, their intention to run in the next election, potential allies or enemies," Bekmamat Mamasadykov stated.
As of "Bir Bol", then this party manages to exist without scandals. "Bir Bol" has a traditional set of campaigning such as sports tournaments, charity events, picnics and youth cleaning days.
This party, perhaps, the only newbie, who presented their vision of the state development to public.
However the fact that "Bir Bol" concentrated very odious personalities confuses. For example, such as Altynbek Sulaimanov - the deputy, entered the Parliament under the banner of "Respublika". But easily renounced brainchild of the former Prime Minister Omurbek Babanov. Many believe that "Bir Bol" was created exactly by Sulaimanov, better known to voters as Jaw. However, the political organization explained that "the party was formed by a collective decision by the group of like-minded and Altynbek Sulaimanov heads the regional cell."
By the way, unlike "Onuguu", "Bir Bol" did not lock in the south, the party demonstrates tireless work and in the northern regions of the country.
Anyway, but political analysts predict these two entities actively to participate in the upcoming the parliamentary elections in autumn 2015.
Zamirbek Biymurzaev still insists that "Bir Bol" as "Onuguu", the southern party.
"Yes, they are united around their heads and knocked together, rather, on regional basis, than convictions. But southern factor is strong enough and at least one southern party must pass the 6th convocation. If we consider the fact that both these parties opposed the local elections of the Social Democrats, and even came to the shooting at re-election in Kara-Suu district council, we can say that the southern block, as in the previous Parliament, likely to form a new majority coalition opposition movement," Zamirbek Biymurzaev predicts.
How to dissipate success
Another very ambitious party - "Zamandash-Sovremennik". Loyal to the government and does not conceal its plans for a certain number of mandates of the Parliament of 2015. "It is likely that they will overtake the Socialists at the finish line with a solid margin," Zamirbek Biymurzaev said.
But "Zamandash" decided to have their own tool. A year before a major political campaign in its ranks had a split. Its leaders don't wash their dirty linen in public, but in Kyrgyzstan all internal intrigues soon become public.
As it became known to 24.kg news agency, two people - Taalaibek Sagynov and Stanislav Epifantsev irritated the actual owner of "Zamandash" Emil Omurakunov. What happened between the allies, it is not clear, but things came to such a pitch that Sagynov and Epifantsev were threatened with expulsion from the political council at first, and then from the party at all.
With such disarray it is impossible to reckon on victory. One thing is clear: if Taalaibek Sagynov and Stanislav Epifantseva will be still kicked out from "Zamandash", both will not remain out of work for a long time. Neither the first, nor the second were not registered in scandals. They have no dirty and dubious past. And, as they say, their hands and feet to take away the other parties will take them at once, because for many it is clear: "Zamandash" largely exists under the authority of these two party activists. Their "leave" means that several more people will leave after Sagynov - Epifantsev as well, being the elite and the driving force of "Zamandash-Sovremennik".
Experts also advise not to ignore the party of the ex-mayor of Osh city Melisbek Myrzakmatov - "Uluttar Birimdigi".
"Yes, this political organization is strong only in the south, mainly in Osh. But if elections are held with numerous violations, its members could destabilize, and being serious, the already fragile situation in the southern areas of the country where the authorities, as it is known, have relatively weak position," Anvar Suiyumbetov said.
What will be in the end?
Recall that in 2010 the struggle for membership in the Parliament of the fifth convocation joined 29 political organizations. Only 5 parties entered the Parliament, which did not gain even 40 percent of votes.
Now analysts generously share their assumptions about the palette of the sixth convocation. As the political scientist Marat Kazakpaev notes, a place of , for example, "Respublika" faction - a sort of conglomerate of "young, solvent and creative" - may take a political party that promotes values such as protection of the interests of entrepreneurs and simultaneously promoting the next "draconian" amendments to the language law.
"Or it may be a party, whose members are screaming about the evil machinations of foreign villains trying to undermine the sovereignty of an "island of democracy". Now these slogans are on trend in the wake of joining the Customs Union," said Marat Kazakpaev, offering to look closely at newcomers of the election process.
There can be considered "Reform" party. But its leadership do not yet know whether they will go to the polls or not. "But even if we go, we can not yet say how honest will be the result. The Central Election Commission at this stage states that it is impossible to collect data for the formation of electoral lists and that is why there is a high risk of raising a conflict over the election. Therefore, we propose a specific way to solve it, and more six parties are in solidarity with it, particularly by the lists of electorate," the representative of "Reforms" Azamat Akeleev said.
Only time may show how the elections of 2015 will be held and who will come to the parliament of the sixth convocation. But experts believe that this time a number of applicants for the mandates will increase up to 35 parties. But as practice shows, quantity does not mean quality. Results of 2010 elections showed that the Kyrgyzstanis express their position "on the contrary". Resounding victory of "Ata-Zhurt" is a proof. And another strong leadership - "Butun Kyrgyzstan" - as well. The latter, as we know, wasn't allowed to enter the Parliament.
"The problem of inefficient operation of political parties lies in principles of their formation - inter-clan and regional. Parties are still formed around one person. That is, there is no uniting ideological level. And if you carefully read the programs of the parties, it can be stated - they are almost identical. The goals and objectives, stated there, are not strategic, but rather declarative. So our people vote not for the program, but for people, members of a political group, and, of course, for leaders. Therefore, the parties in KR mostly represent corporate associations and can not protect the interests of voters," Marat Kazakpaev says.
The fifth wants to become the sixth
The Parliament at this stage is preparing amendments to the laws, governing the activities of the parties and the election process as well. The suggestions were given by the deputies Aynuru Altybaeva ("Ar-Namys") and Myktybek Abdyldaev ("Ata-Zhurt"). The first initiates changes, according to which the parties obtaining at least 5 percent of votes, will be financed from the budget. A kind of compensation for the election campaign.
Under the new electoral law, the threshold for getting in the parliament - 7 percent. Also it is offered to cancel the registration of those parties, which did not participate in the elections for five years, both local and in the national, and to define a fixed number of members in political organizations.
With regard to the electoral law, the voters will be allowed (if this initiative will be adopted) to define priority of deputy candidates in party lists.
That is, a citizen, coming to the polling station, receives an envelope with a barcode with sealed ballot, to which a list of running for deputy party members from the same region is attached. At least 9 districts will be determined by: a number of areas plus two cities - Bishkek and Osh. Voter himself can designate any of representatives of province or city, whom he would like to see a deputy. There may be a few, then it is necessary to note the names selected in order of priority, i.e. 1, 2, 3 and so on. A voter in the bulletin marks a chosen party, and a list of chosen representatives of the party - people from a particular region is attached.
Members of the Territorial Election Commission, committed violations during the voting, will be prosecuted.
So whether it will so in real or good intentions of deputies are destined to remain on paper, turned into recommendation, optional for execution - an open question. Just as the party construction. It seems that there are a lot of parties, but it is only, rather, interest groups, which leaders tend to be more posturing than defending a position.