After the recent events in Ukraine Kyrgyz opposition members were inspired somehow and even held several meetings in late February. Recently a meeting of supporters of a new political force - the National opposition movement took placein Bishkek, which brought together famous politicians, who joined the opposition and mostly former officials. Participants of the meeting once again criticized the current government's position on such vital issues, as the fate of Kumtor mine, the entry into the Customs Union, sale of Kyrgyzgas to Gazprom, joint construction of hydropower facilities with Russia, etc. But there were no alternative proposals to raise the national economy.
Another discussion of the political situation of the country in the context of the events in Ukraine was held at a specially organized round table with the participation of senior officials, opposition leaders, NGOs, experts and journalists. They drew a parallel with Ukraine, discussed the possibility of repeating the Ukrainian scenario in Kyrgyzstan, which supposedly has a similar background, in particular, the future accession to the leading by Russia Customs Union and the division of the country into north and south.
During discussions, the leader of the national opposition movement, MP Ravshan Jeenbekov compared the situation in the two countries, accusing the Kyrgyz President of authoritarianism, pro-Russian foreign policy, the absence of real reforms. In his thought, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan have many similarities- geopolitical location, strong neighbors, quite strong opposition, and both countries are facing the choice of the integration direction.
In respond to it, Tokon Mamytov, Vice Prime Minister of the KR, stressed that there are no grounds to draw parallels with Ukraine and to say that such events could be repeated in Kyrgyzstan. "In 2005 and in 2010 there were grounds, these were systemic corruption, economic collapse, protest actions, persecution of opposition members," he said. According to him, in the events in Ukraine the authorities, the opposition and the radicals should take the blame upon themselves, but one should not forget about external factors (i.e, the impact of the U.S. and the EU).
Many experts say that, the opposition’s allegations are unsubstantiated, there is no usurpation of power, the parliament and the government are endowed with sufficient powers, four parliamentary factions out of five had been in opposition, that proves that there cannot be the monopoly of one party in the parliament. There are enough critics, but the opposition has no real proposals to improve the economic situation in the country, and therefore a constructive dialogue with the authorities in the interests of the country can’t be come out.
The drawing parallels with the events in Ukraine are being discussed by many national media. Thus, Komsomolskaya Pravda in Kyrgyzstan published an article "Is Ukrainian scenario looming Kyrgyzstan?", where the newspaper suggested politicians and experts to make comments on this topic. However, opinions of participants of the discussion on the Ukrainian scenario in Kyrgyzstan differed. Opposition politicians believe that there are many parallels between Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine, and therefore, events like Euromaidan revolution quite possible in Kyrgyzstan.
But Tokon Mamytov asserts that there is nothing in common between the events in Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine, except for the tragic end with the capture of the regional administration buildings, human casualties and escape of national leaders.
Some experts consider that the Ukrainian scenario repeats the events of 2005 and 2010 in Kyrgyzstan, i.e Ukraine lags behind in this respect. But in any case, the echoes of these events could have a negative impact on the CIS countries. The chaos and economic recession in Ukraine, accompany any violent overthrow of the government, and therefore, the parties need to learn to hold dialogue, to find compromise and negotiate in the interests of their countries and not to be pawns in somebody’s game.
President Atambayev in his comments on the situation in Ukraine expressed his condolences to relatives of victims and expressed hope that the people of Ukraine will be able to preserve their unity and solve the problems facing the country. He also said that in this difficult period a great responsibility rests with Ukrainian politicians, who claimed responsibility for the fate of the country. "They should take into account the interests of the Ukrainian people, to avoid escalation of tension of political situation, especially in inter-ethnic sphere," said Atambayev. After such comments there appears a hope that the Kyrgyz politicians, responsible for the fate of the nation, will do their best not to allow repeating the Ukrainian scenario.
Now the opposition plans to organize one more meeting, earlier it was scheduled for March 17, but organizers of the meeting said that it is postponed to March 31. Political analysts say that, the new opposition movement united too many-faceted politicians, mainly representatives of the old regime, thus, one can hardly say about powerful opposition force. The opposition has no its political and economic platform and yet they cannot offer their own option of economic development of the country. Apparently, therefore, they cannot conduct constructive dialogue with the authorities. Nevertheless the government declared that is ready for dialogue with the opposition to avoid repeating the Maidan in Kyrgyzstan.
At the same time head of the Center for Advanced Researches Sergey Masaulov says that the people are tired of meetings and now people in Kyrgyzstan do not want protest actions. This means that today's national opposition movement is an external project that pursues the geopolitical interests of external actors, but not the interests of the country. And all the politicians who wish to realize their ambitions through organization of all kinds of protests on any reasons should think about it. It is not worth to sacrifice the stability in the country for the sake of somebody’s interests.