While many politicians would find a way to avoid announcing an unpopular policy, like the decision to increase fuel prices, in a televised news conference, Coordinating Minister for the Economy Hatta Rajasa confidently took the podium last week to make the announcement.
With only a year until the next presidential election, many feared Hatta, the chairman of the National Mandate Party (PAN) and one of the first to declare his presidential candidacy, would put his popularity at risk through being the public face of the fuel price increase.
Offsetting such dangers is the reality that Hatta barely rates a mention in national opinion polls, sitting low in a field of possible candidates despite a decent level of public recognition brought about in part by his distinctive mop of white hair.
Working in Hatta’s favor as an aspirant for high office is the perception that he is the brains behind President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s economic policies.
Same analysts have come to refer to the government’s economic policy has “Hattanomics,” encapsulating an approach of using big government-driven infrastructure plans to drive development. The $400 billion Masterplan for Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesia’s Economic Development (MP3EI) of 2011 was one of his signature achievements.
“He is a politician who will dare to be unpopular in order to introduce policies he sees will benefit the nation,” said Muhammad Qodari, executive director of IndoBarometer.
While PAN won just 6 percent of votes in the 2009 legislative elections, giving it 43 of 560 seats in the House of Representatives, many analysts say Hatta is one of the country’s most powerful people.
Such claims are due to his long and productive political career, his position as Yudhoyono’s top economic official and now his role as an in-law to the president — his daughter Siti Ruby Aliya Rajasa in 2011 married Yudhoyono’s youngest son Edhie “Ibas” Baskoro Yudhoyono.
He is well regarded within PAN ranks.
“He is a seasoned politician, no doubt, and highly skillful in negotiation. He has all the ingredients to become a good leader, a president even,” said PAN deputy chairman Dradjat Wibowo.
A long political career
Born in 1953 in Palembang, South Sumatra, from a family of Muhammadiyah members, the country’s second largest Islamic organization, Hatta studied at the prestigious Bandung Institute of Technology.
He was active in the Islamic Student’s Association (HMI) and learned about politics there. He said he was particularly attracted to ideas of pluralism in politics.
Hatta worked for oil and gas companies before founding his own businesses, which he later sold when he entered politics.
After the downfall of President Suharto in 1998, Hatta helped found PAN with former Muhammadiyah chairman Amien Rais. Hatta was soon elected as a lawmaker and head of his party’s faction in the House.
In 2001, he was appointed as research and technology minister under President Megawati Sukarnoputri. His connection with fellow South Sumatran Taufiq Kiemas, the husband of Megawati who died earlier this month, was cited by some as a factor in his appointment.
When Yudhoyono was elected president in 2004, PAN, which was part of the ruling coalition, put him forth as a minister. He was appointed to the transportation portfolio.
His time in the role included several transportation disas ters, including the crashes of Mandala Airlines flight 91, Adam Air flight 547 and Garuda Indonesia flight 200, as well as the sinking of the Digoel and Senopati Nusantara ferries. But given the country’s long history of transportation difficulties, little blame for the incidents was sheeted home to the minister.
Yudhoyono rewarded him for his performance in the role with a 2007 appointment as state secretary, a Cabinet post that gave him both the ear of the president and the right to speak on his behalf.
He held the role until the 2009 election, after which a reelected Yudhoyono asked him to serve as chief economics minister, a role that meant he was second only to the president in setting the government’s economic policy.
His rapidly advancing political career prompted a push among PAN members for him to serve as party chairman, after the departure of Soetrisno Bachir from the role.
Following a heated battle in 2010, he defeated up-and-coming Muslim scholar and economist Dradjat Wibowo, who settled his differences with Hatta by taking the second most senior position on the party’s central board.
It was during this time that his name was mentioned as a possible replacement of Yudhoyono in 2014.
A low profile
Despite such political capital, Hatta has kept a low profile when discussing his chances of winning the presidency, although PAN has already declared him as its preferred candidate.
“Of course, it will be an honor to be nominated as a president, but it’s too early to talk about it. We need to work hard to make the party successful first. If we can boost the number of the party’s votes, then God willing, we can also win the presidency,” he told the media recently.
His low profile, experts said, left him outside with poor results in surveys of public opinion.
A recent survey by the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) ranked him ninth of all candidates, with support from only 1.2 percent of respondents, far below top-ranking Jakarta Goveror Joko Widodo on 22 percent and former general Prabowo Subianto on 14 percent.
“We have to admit that he is not popular enough to become a presidential contender,” said Adrinof Chaniago, a political expert with the University of Indonesia.
Aside from overcoming low personal popularity, Hatta also must face the daunting task of gaining adequate party political support to become a presidential candidate.
Under the law a candidate intending to compete in the 2014 presidential election must be nominated by a political party or a coalition of political parties that garner at least 20 percent in April’s legislative election.
PAN has set a target of 15 percent in 2014, but many doubt it will even break double figures. “PAN is still a medium-sized party. So, Hatta needs support from others, and most likely will look to Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party,” said Qodari.
But the pollster said that even support from the party led by his in-law was probably not going to help, as Yudhoyono’s party has been declining in popularity.
Outside Java
The fact that he is not Javanese may prove a barrier to attracting support from some Indonesian voters, given ingrained perceptions of the ethnic group’s claim on national leadership positions.
“He is not from Java, and when it comes to leadership, the public seeks a sense of identity, a symbolic figure that could represent them,” said Arbi Sanit, a political analyst from the University of Indonesia.
Analysts and commentators say Hatta’s best shot would be to aim for the vice presidency with the backing of the Democrats.
“With his party plus the Democratic Party, he has a good shot,” Qodari said.
Prabowo, the founder of Gerindra who is also looking for support from other major political parties, has sounded out Hatta about becoming his running mate.
They have met several times, with analysts speculating that Prabowo could woo both PAN and the Democratic Party to ensure his candidacy in 2014.
While acknowledging he had met with Prabowo, Hatta said it was to early to make a decision on the coalition. “We’ve opened political communication but nothing has been decided yet,” he said.
by: Dessy Aswim
source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/he-has-what-it-takes-except-popularity/
